Energy Matters

Scrooge Too

See Scrooge One last year: « Bah, Humbug! Maybe Scrooge had it right.

"Pretty soon, there'll be more Scrooges in Manhattan and all the boys on Wall Street will be conserving away so there is more of everything to go around.

Misers."

If half of all the incandescent decorative holiday lights in the US were replaced by LED lights we could cut the December power bill by $17 billion dollars.

Does Hank Paulson know about this?

Some good ideas are so obvious that we miss them.  Nobody is saying we should go back to 1889 and Benjamin Harrison's candles on the tree. Still, conservation of energy need not be extreme.

Nancy Pelosi will light the US Capitol treeon December 2nd and it will be brightly lit with LED lights.  These use about 90% less energy than standard bulbs. 

Nice to see a good example being set.  On the other hand, it is a bit gaudy even with LEDs, isn't it?

Probably look fine with half the bulbs lit.

For a few tips on reducing your power bill and having your bright holiday lighting too, have a look here:

Energy-saving Holiday Lighting Tips

Energy Ideas

Energy Saving Tips

Green Holiday Tips from The Sierra Club

Table courtesy of NSTAR

Happy Holidays!

What Was Next?

The future.

How easy is it to know and be ready for whatever will happen next? 

There is the conventional "wisdom":

"We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur"

   Dan Quayle, 9/22/90

Or

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"

   Yogi Berra

 

Or, in some instances at least there really are pretty reliable sources looking into the future. 

The real question is: how will we react?

I saw a short AP wire service piece in the newspaper (you know the old-fashioned, delivered-to-your-door, soggy-in-wet-weather news paper) that predicted energy demand will increase globally by 45% between 2006 and 2030.

The article highlighted results from a just-published International Energy Agency report, "World Energy Outlook, 2008".  (Get the executive summary for free or buy the 578 page PDF  for €120.)

This is a fascinating document and the summary alone is quite the sobering eye-opener.  But to the question of reliability I went back and found a 1993 prediction from the World Resources Institute that predicted a 40% rise in energy use, with the largest increases coming from the developing world. 

Here's their view of the future from the past:

"Energy is central to our economies, our lifestyles, and our health. It powers industrial production, transportation, and increasingly, agricultural production. It provides services such as heating, refrigeration, and lighting, which raise the quality of life and provide tangible health benefits such as unspoiled food and relief from the stresses of heat or cold.

Global energy use has climbed steadily over the years as industrial economies have expanded; this rapid rise is expected to continue over the next several decades. According to one model, energy use could increase roughly 40 percent between 1993 and 2010. Even if anticipated gains in energy efficiency from the adoption of new technology are factored in, energy use is likely to continue to surge beyond 2010 as well. (Of course, aggressive steps to reduce energy use could change the course of these trends.)"

World Resources Institute, 1993

So, if you look at what actually happened across this time span, it pretty much tracks to the World Resources Institute prediction and lends credence to the IEA report's outlook for 45% move upward from now til 2030.

What should be a bit scary is the parenthetical note at the end of this quote, that aggressive steps to reduce energy use could change the trends. 

Since the prediction did come true, it seems that whatever was done over that seventeen year span wasn't enough.

So it appears that the more relevant question is not how to predict the future but how to change it.

Many of us are working aggressively to reduce the energy demand for IT and so might feel good about doing our part.   But if IT consumes only about 1.5-2% of energy produced, what about the remainder?

This is where we need some big ideas and need to step out of our own world to use IT to help resolve the bigger issues of energy and economics. 

Feel free to add your comments or big ideas.

 

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Changes and Choices

My Taxi driver to Madrid's airport last Thursday morning spoke little English - maybe as much as my limited Spanish.  Still, there was no mistaking his exuberance in having an American in his cab.  "Obama" he repeated with an enthusiastic thumbs up. 

Barack Obama's picture fronted every morning paper.  Local TV featured the previous evening's  Madrid election rally, complete with life-size Obama cardboard cutouts. 

Friends and colleagues in France had wanted to talk of little else earlier in the week.  All eyes on America in anticipation and then wild parties when the results delivered what 80% of surveyed European's were hoping for.

It was a great week of perspective for me that demonstrated how intently they anticipated and then reacted to the American Presidential Election - and how much was expected as a result.  "A big change for our country" I said to a Spanish colleague.  "No," I was corrected, "for the world."

 

Now What?

There was certainly an atmosphere that change had happened and that more changes and choices are on the way.  

Nearly every conversation turned quickly to if I had voted (yes) and what I expected to happen and how it would impact all the obvious issues at hand. 

We discussed all of it: race and war and economics, and "W".  We also discussed energy- energy policy, futures, social impacts, alternatives, CO2, business impacts and on.

There is high expectation, "a new hope" that each of these thorny topics will be addressed from a fresh perspective.  Addressed and improved and maybe even resolved by this skinny new guy.

I share some of that anticipation and even hope, especially on the energy front, and I think there's a big potential for Information Technology to strongly contribute to change.  Successful change.

Just shaking things up is often a good thing by itself.  This may be just the shake we need to get great minds and new ideas and the new collaborations we need to solve energy issues globally and in the Data Center too.

 

Here's why

Both Obama and McCain featured energy policy high on their agendas, so it was sure to be a topic for either in a new administration.  With a Democrat about to occupy the White House,  the Democratic leadership in Congress is already preparing new energy legislation and even fighting over the chairmanship of key committees - new energy on energy.

Policy impacts will hit all energy sources - oil, coal, gas, nuclear, (the next president even knows how to say it "new - clee - err") and new attention is promised to alternatives - wind, solar, tide, etc. .

Obama has pledged a $25B investment in the auto industry for the design and production of more fuel efficient vehicles and promises greater attention to energy conservation overall- not a strong suit for his predecessor.

Granted, the economy will be first, second and third in line for attention 'til progress is made and confidence rebounds.  But I'm one that sees energy in all its dimensions as a key part of the rebound engine:   EIT, Energy and Information Technology.

While economic issues may make it a bit slower in coming, Obama has proposed investing $150B over the next ten years in clean energy technology and development of green jobs.  He's looking for greater reliance on these alternatives along with aggressive reductions of US greenhouse gases and new industry incentives / regulations / caps around production of CO2. 

With significant alignment of energy sentiments outside the US already, these new policies will likely stimulate excitement for greater acceleration and cooperation - inside and outside the Data Center,  inside and outside the US.

 

Technology in the Cabinet

Obama has also  pledged to create a cabinet level position charged with shaping technology policy.  Information Technology will play a big part in that and it will be interesting to see how the IT and Energy technology (EIT) develop together and are both leveraged to help priority number one - the economy. 

 

 

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